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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán was notable as the only EU chief to endorse Donald Trump. This alignment was hardly surprising, considering the Hungarian leader's adoption of divisive ideas such as population replacement concept and his restrictions against media freedom. Analysts have noted that Mr Orbán more or less wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors Before the Hungarian Vote

Last week, ahead of key votes in Hungary merely approaching in six months, Donald Trump returned some political favors. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term presiding over a nation he describes as an illiberal state, his ruling party lags in the polls. A meeting to the US capital yielded more than some autographed Trump merchandise; it secured far more significant pre-election gifts.

Waivers and Economic Protections

Despite earlier admonishing European states on the need to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and warning of sanctions against nations persisting to purchase Russian crude, Donald Trump approved to grant a unique waiver for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the Trump administration also promised to extend a “financial shield” to Budapest should it encounters any future difficulties, especially as EU institutions continues to withhold substantial EU funds to Hungary due to violations of legal standards.

The details of this agreement seem vague. But Donald Trump recently demonstrated his inclination to assist like-minded partners after the America extended a $20 billion in emergency funds to the Argentine leader, the South American leader. While Orbán was unable to arrange a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Washington talks nevertheless proved a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and International Implications

In the corridors of the EU, Trump's actions likely further underlined the international consequences of the coming election, prior to which the centrist challenger, Magyar, has a solid advantage in surveys. Heads of state know not to look for steady principles from the Trump White House, and have grown used to the Trump's moves to diminish the European Union. But the waiver for Hungary – secured through an deal to acquire American energy resources – flagrantly undermines European goals to end Russian oil and gas by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have contributed well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has often employed the blocking vote to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As Europe strives to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has refrained from promising a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on domestic issues, while stressing the importance for the country to start acting as a positive member state. After years of so many years of trolling, EU officials can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, like the protection of minority groups and the autonomy of civic groups, has persisted as a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His continued obstructionism regarding Ukrainian matters risks undermining its security prospects.